A new interest rate regime

As 2017 began, bond investors speculated on the impact of the new administration’s policies. How inflationary might lower taxes, deregulation and a big infrastructure bill be for the U.S. economy? The first quarter spike in 10-year Treasury rates (shown below) indicated that the bond market was expecting big increases in…

The two-year has broken through to the other side

Have we finally begun seeing the normalization of interest rates in U.S. Treasuries? Although we’ve seen sudden rises in interest rates before, we haven’t seen a precipitous rise like we’ve seen in the last month. Although we often focus on the ten-year Treasury as the barometer of interest rates, the two-year Treasury is our focus at this point.…

Same as it ever was…

Reflationary forces dominated the fixed income market as the second quarter ended. A June rate increase (to a range of 1.00% to 1.25% on Fed Funds) by the Federal Reserve, and a rise to the 2.84% level on the 30-year U.S. Treasury led some market participants to believe the long…