Rates increase for first time in 2016

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent, signaling a strengthening US economy. We anticipated this hike, as did the stock market, which has already priced in a December rate hike. For many, this has not come as a surprise. The Fed is data-dependent, and employment has improved, GDP was[...] Continue reading

What’s going on in the bond market?

The bond market has taken a turn over the last few weeks. There are a number of reasons for this decline, with the obvious being we have a new President-elect that may not be as accommodating to the notion of unlimited government bond buying to artificially depress lending cost. Now, the market is readjusting to what a “real” interest rate should be without Fed[...] Continue reading

The Trump Era – One Week In

Now that the President-elect has begun to pick some key players in his new administration (he named his Chief of Staff and Chief Strategist over the weekend), we wanted to follow up on our initial comments from last Wednesday on the sea-change that is Donald Trump. After an initial wave of selling in the initial hours of vote tallying, the U.S. stock market rapidly[...] Continue reading

A surprising Trump win

It appears that the dog has caught the car - Donald Trump has been elected President. The obvious question is – what will he do with it? Donald Trump has won the Presidency with both fewer actual votes than Hillary Clinton (she won the popular vote), and less than a majority (50 percent). Republicans also maintained control of both the House and the Senate. The new[...] Continue reading

Interest rates left unchanged

As indicated by the Fed Funds futures contracts, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held steady with interest rates at its September meeting. The markets priced in less than a 25 percent chance of an interest rate increase and the FOMC did not disappoint. Although Janet Yellen, along with other Fed voters, have insinuated in the past month that we are on track for at least one[...] Continue reading