Is the Fed going to cut rates?

With 2019 more than halfway over, there are a few things that investors should continue to keep an eye on until year-end that could lead to market movements. One of the biggest drivers continues to be Fed decisions – while they did not do anything in June, they did give…

The Fed’s in waiting mode

With a third of the year over already, much of the market volatility encountered in late 2018 is fading in the rear-view mirror. While the China trade dispute has reemerged recently as a top risk for investors, markets are still generally positive for 2019. Brexit and uncertainty about future Fed…

A new interest rate regime

As 2017 began, bond investors speculated on the impact of the new administration’s policies. How inflationary might lower taxes, deregulation and a big infrastructure bill be for the U.S. economy? The first quarter spike in 10-year Treasury rates (shown below) indicated that the bond market was expecting big increases in…

The two-year has broken through to the other side

Have we finally begun seeing the normalization of interest rates in U.S. Treasuries? Although we’ve seen sudden rises in interest rates before, we haven’t seen a precipitous rise like we’ve seen in the last month. Although we often focus on the ten-year Treasury as the barometer of interest rates, the two-year Treasury is our focus at this point.…