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Is this the end of the 30 year bond rally?

The fourth quarter of 2016 was anything but boring in the bond market. The U.S. Federal Reserve continued to play a vital role, ultimately raising short term interest rates for the first time in 2016 in December. However, it was not for the reasons that were expected. With the surprise election of Donald J. Trump… Continue reading →

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Trump takes over

On January 20, Donald J. Trump became the 45th President of the United States, and we’re all wondering what “The World According to Trump” will look like. Given his penchant for late-night Twitter eruptions and policy head fakes, no one knows if the President-elect is serious about bringing fundamental change to the U.S. economy. The… Continue reading →

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Push me pull you

The tug of war in US interest rates continued in the third quarter of 2016. The US economy showed some strength on the employment front that pushed rates up, but these forces were offset by Federal Reserve Bank Governors jawboning rates back down. Weak foreign economic news also depressed US rates during the quarter, as… Continue reading →

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Analysis

The 2% solution

The US economy can’t get out of its own way. Seven years of sub 3 percent economic growth have discouraged millions of middle and working-class families and deferred the dreams of the millennial generation. This (seemingly endless) saga of lingering debt, stagnant wages and jarring income  inequality has flummoxed economic policymakers and spurred populist movements… Continue reading →

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Brexit and the bond market

Throughout the second quarter of 2016, the specter of a “Brexit” vote hung over fixed income markets. Federal Reserve policymakers said as much in mid-June, when Chair Janet Yellen admitted that concerns about Britain leaving the European Union (EU) were a factor in the U.S. central bank’s decision not to raise short term interest rates.… Continue reading →

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