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The “MAGA” saga

The defining slogan of Donald Trump’s 2016 Presidential campaign was “Make America Great Again” (MAGA).  Presumably he won the election because millions of discouraged voters, particularly those in the Rust Belt, bought into the idea that Mr. Trump could deliver on his MAGA promise. But can he? Does he have a well-defined social, economic and… Continue reading →

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The Fed pushes – bonds push back

On March 15 the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for only the third time in 10 years, to a range of .75 percent to 1.00 percent. With Fed funds futures pricing in a 100 percent probability of an increase prior to the meeting, the Fed had no other option if it wanted to avoid… Continue reading →

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Is this the end of the 30 year bond rally?

The fourth quarter of 2016 was anything but boring in the bond market. The U.S. Federal Reserve continued to play a vital role, ultimately raising short term interest rates for the first time in 2016 in December. However, it was not for the reasons that were expected. With the surprise election of Donald J. Trump… Continue reading →

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Changes ahead sign

Trump takes over

On January 20, Donald J. Trump became the 45th President of the United States, and we’re all wondering what “The World According to Trump” will look like. Given his penchant for late-night Twitter eruptions and policy head fakes, no one knows if the President-elect is serious about bringing fundamental change to the U.S. economy. The… Continue reading →

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Computer key - 3rd quarter

Push me pull you

The tug of war in US interest rates continued in the third quarter of 2016. The US economy showed some strength on the employment front that pushed rates up, but these forces were offset by Federal Reserve Bank Governors jawboning rates back down. Weak foreign economic news also depressed US rates during the quarter, as… Continue reading →

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